INSTITUTO DE GLOBALIZACIÓN Y PROSPECTIVA Centro virtual que contribuye a que profesionales, académicos, políticos, medios de comunicación y "decision-makers" incorporen en su actividad la visión prospectiva para la "gestión del futuro". Dirigido en Chile por el prof. Héctor Casanueva, Nodo Chile del Millennium Projec(MP)(www.millennium-project.org)think tank global de estudios de futuro de 3.000 académicos, políticos, científicos, artistas e intelectuales de todo el mundo.
miércoles, agosto 06, 2008
2008 State of the Future
by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu
www millennium-project.org
www millennium-project.org
While it is not possible to predict the future, the 2008 State of the Future report enables us to think analytically about crucial global challenges, such as environmental security.
Hans Blix, President, WFUNA, and Former Director-General, IAEA
The 2008 State of the Future continues its excellent annual tradition of providing a comprehensive, insightful, and highly readable review of issues and options facing global decisionmakers.
The 2008 State of the Future continues its excellent annual tradition of providing a comprehensive, insightful, and highly readable review of issues and options facing global decisionmakers.
Mohan Munasinghe, Vice Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, co-winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
The Millennium Project and its State of the Future report represent best practice on how collective intelligence across borders and sectors can be focused on critical global challenges and opportunities. The enhanced participation of developing nations (especially in Africa) in such futures outlook is essential to our shared future.
Olive Shisana, CEO, Human Sciences Research Council, South Africa
Success for policymakers depends upon having some ability to anticipate the consequences of their actions. The insights that the State of the Future provides hold great appeal in this regard.
Ali M. Abbasov, Minister of Communications and Information Technologies of the Republic of Azerbaijan
An important commitment of any government is to look at the future with responsibility. The 2008 State of the Future and the Millennium Project research and foresight work are necessary in order to aim at ambitious social goals and to commit ourselves to achieve them.
Enrique Peña Nieto, Constitutional Governor of the State of Mexico
The State of the Future challenges all of us working on the global convergence of ICT to improve knowledge-based governance worldwide.
Goran Radman, Chairman, Microsoft Corporation––South East Europe
The 15 Global Challenges updated annually continue to be the best introduction by far to the key issues of the early 21st century.
Michael Marien, editor, Future Survey
The State of the Future provides unique political, economic, and social insights into the progress the world is making through the SOFI (State of the Future Index) and increasingly clear perspectives into the 15 Global Challenges humanity must learn how to mitigate and manage as we continue to evolve into our mutual future.
John J. Gottsman, Chair, World Future Society
The 2008 State of the Future is a “must read” if you want to stay in the hub of the wheel of world future issues.
Kazuo Mizuta, Professor, Kyoto Sangyo, University, Japan
Nine of the eleven annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.
This “Report Card on the Future” distills the collective intelligence of over 2,500 leading scientists, futurists, scholars, and policy advisors who work for governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, and international organizations. The 2008 State of the Future comes in two parts: a 100-page print executive summary and an attached CD containing about 6,000 pages of research behind the print edition and the Millennium Project’s 12 years of cumulative research and methods. Some unique features not available in other global assessments include:
15 Global Challenges – Prospects, Strategies, Insights
State of the Future Index for the world and nations
Government Future Strategy Units and some potentials for international strategic coordination
Global Energy Collective Intelligence – system design options
Environmental Security – overview
Real-Time Delphi technique
700 Annotated Scenario Sets
and much more futures intelligence on technology, environment, governance, and the human condition
It is produced by the Millennium Project, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.
Paperback with CD-ROM. 100-page print and over 6,000 pages CD-ROM ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping. Discount 40% for orders over 10 copies. (Payment by major credit cards or US dollars check or money order)
Table of ContentsThe 2008 State of the Future is composed of two parts: print and CD. The print book contains the executive summary of each of the studies conducted in 2007–08. The enclosed CD of about 6,300 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium Project since 1996 and details of the studies included in the print section.
Table of Contents – Print Section
Table of Contents – CD
List of Figures and Boxes
Table of Contents – Print Section
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary - 1
1. Global Challenges - 11
2. State of the Future Index - 43
3. Real-Time Delphi Technique - 55
4. Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination - 59
5. Global Energy Collective Intelligence - 71
6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues - 83
Appendix Millennium Project Participants Demographics
Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Table of Contents – CD-ROM Section
Executive Summary (10 pages)
1. Global Challenges (1,100 pages)
2. State of the Future Index Section2.1 Global SOFI (286 pages)2.2 National SOFIs (89 pages)2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)
3. Global Scenarios 3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)
4. Governance-related Studies4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination 4.2 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)4.3 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
5. Science and Technology5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)
6. Global Energy Collective Intelligence
7. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)
8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development 8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)
9. Environmental Security 9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives (31 pages)9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)
10. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)
11. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)
Appendices Appendix A: Millennium Project ParticipantsAppendix B: State of the Future Index SectionAppendix C: Global Scenarios Appendix D: Science and TechnologyAppendix E: Global Energy Collective IntelligenceAppendix F: Government Future Strategy UnitsAppendix G: Education and Learning 2030Appendix H: Global EthicsAppendix I: Global Goals for the Year 2050Appendix J: World Leaders on Global ChallengesAppendix K: Environmental Security StudiesAppendix L: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development Appendix M: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in DecisionmakingAppendix N: Real Time Delphi ProcessAppendix O: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario SetsAppendix P: Other Annotated Bibliographies: Ethics Related Organizations Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research Women/Gender OrganizationsAppendix R: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future and the Millennium Project Appendix S: Publications of the Millennium Project Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Figures
Figure 1. SOFI 2007 with alternative projections by trend impact analysisFigure 2. Global surface temperature anomalies (0C)Figure 3. Global trends of freedomFigure 4. Regional internet population growthFigure 5. Share of people living on less than $1 a day (%)Figure 6. Physicians density (per 10 000 population)Figure 7. Growth of international organizations (NGOs and IGOs)Figure 8. Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2007Figure 9. Women in national parliaments (percentage)Figure 10. Global challenges and SOFI processFigure 11. SOFI 2007 with trend impact analysisFigure 12. Unemployment with trend impact analysisFigure 13. Correlation between poverty, unemployment, and population growth (income less than $1 per day) (low- and mid-income countriesFigure 14. SOFI using IFs data in the Millennium Project templateFigure 15. SOFI comparison with IFs data and Millennium Project dataFigure 16. South Korea SOFI using IFs data and Millennium Project dataFigure 17. SOFI of the Republic of South KoreaFigure 18. Screen-shots of the SOFI presentationFigure 19. Screen-shot of a Real-Time Delphi questionnaireFigure 20. Demographics of RTD participants since 2006Figure 21. Possible representation of the global energy elementsFigure 22. Example of a unit of information, with column of choices about the informationFigure 23. Argument-structured information overview of an issueFigure 24. Recursive linked interfaceFigure 25. Politician and staff member, GENIS flow diagramFigure 26. Energy dash board example for a question during a legislative hearingFigure 27. Failed States Index 2008Figure 28. Expenditures and estimated costs of various programsFigure 29. Ratifications of 12 multilateral environmental agreements, by UNEP GEO regionsFigure 30. Number of parties to multilateral environmental agreements, 1975–2008Figure 31. Participants in the 2007–08 programFigure 32. Participants since 1996
Boxes
Box 1. Where is humanity winning and losingBox 2. SOFI variablesBox 3. SOFI 2007–08 studyBox 4. Systemic SOFI and 2008 SOFIBox 5. SOFI variables for the Republic of South KoreaBox 6. Some accords and regulations related to environmental security recently adopted, strengthened, in negotiation, or proposed
2008 State of the Future by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu
TO BE PUBLISHED AUGUST 2008
all www millennium-project.org
While it is not possible to predict the future, the 2008 State of the Future report enables us to think analytically about crucial global challenges, such as environmental security. Hans Blix, President, WFUNA, and Former Director-General, IAEA
Paperback with CD-ROM
... enclosed CD contains about 6,300 pages of research behind this print edition, as well as the Millennium Project’s 12 years of study and analysis.
Executive Summary: Arabic, English, Russian, Spanish
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping
Order
(See the article in The Independent: "We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed" )
Table of Contents
List of Figures and Boxes
What is New in This Year’s Report
The 2008 State of the Future continues its excellent annual tradition of providing a comprehensive, insightful, and highly readable review of issues and options facing global decisionmakers. Mohan Munasinghe, Vice Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, co-winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
The Millennium Project and its State of the Future report represent best practice on how collective intelligence across borders and sectors can be focused on critical global challenges and opportunities. The enhanced participation of developing nations (especially in Africa) in such futures outlook is essential to our shared future. Olive Shisana, CEO, Human Sciences Research Council, South Africa
Success for policymakers depends upon having some ability to anticipate the consequences of their actions. The insights that the State of the Future provides hold great appeal in this regard. Ali M. Abbasov, Minister of Communications and Information Technologies of the Republic of Azerbaijan
An important commitment of any government is to look at the future with responsibility. The 2008 State of the Future and the Millennium Project research and foresight work are necessary in order to aim at ambitious social goals and to commit ourselves to achieve them. Enrique Peña Nieto, Constitutional Governor of the State of Mexico
The State of the Future challenges all of us working on the global convergence of ICT to improve knowledge-based governance worldwide. Goran Radman, Chairman, Microsoft Corporation––South East Europe
The 15 Global Challenges updated annually continue to be the best introduction by far to the key issues of the early 21st century. Michael Marien, editor, Future Survey
The State of the Future provides unique political, economic, and social insights into the progress the world is making through the SOFI (State of the Future Index) and increasingly clear perspectives into the 15 Global Challenges humanity must learn how to mitigate and manage as we continue to evolve into our mutual future. John J. Gottsman, Chair, World Future Society
The 2008 State of the Future is a “must read” if you want to stay in the hub of the wheel of world future issues. Kazuo Mizuta, Professor, Kyoto Sangyo, University, Japan
Nine of the eleven annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.
This “Report Card on the Future” distills the collective intelligence of over 2,500 leading scientists, futurists, scholars, and policy advisors who work for governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, and international organizations. The 2008 State of the Future comes in two parts: a 100-page print executive summary and an attached CD containing about 6,000 pages of research behind the print edition and the Millennium Project’s 12 years of cumulative research and methods. Some unique features not available in other global assessments include:
15 Global Challenges – Prospects, Strategies, Insights
State of the Future Index for the world and nations
Government Future Strategy Units and some potentials for international strategic coordination
Global Energy Collective Intelligence – system design options
Environmental Security – overview
Real-Time Delphi technique
700 Annotated Scenario Sets
and much more futures intelligence on technology, environment, governance, and the human condition
It is produced by the Millennium Project, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.
Paperback with CD-ROM. 100-page print and over 6,000 pages CD-ROM ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping. Discount 40% for orders over 10 copies. (Payment by major credit cards or US dollars check or money order)
Table of ContentsThe 2008 State of the Future is composed of two parts: print and CD. The print book contains the executive summary of each of the studies conducted in 2007–08. The enclosed CD of about 6,300 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium Project since 1996 and details of the studies included in the print section.
Table of Contents – Print Section
Table of Contents – CD
List of Figures and Boxes
Table of Contents – Print Section
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary - 1
1. Global Challenges - 11
2. State of the Future Index - 43
3. Real-Time Delphi Technique - 55
4. Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination - 59
5. Global Energy Collective Intelligence - 71
6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues - 83
Appendix Millennium Project Participants Demographics
Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Table of Contents – CD-ROM Section
Executive Summary (10 pages)
1. Global Challenges (1,100 pages)
2. State of the Future Index Section2.1 Global SOFI (286 pages)2.2 National SOFIs (89 pages)2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)
3. Global Scenarios 3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)
4. Governance-related Studies4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination 4.2 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)4.3 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
5. Science and Technology5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)
6. Global Energy Collective Intelligence
7. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)
8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development 8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)
9. Environmental Security 9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives (31 pages)9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)
10. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)
11. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)
Appendices Appendix A: Millennium Project ParticipantsAppendix B: State of the Future Index SectionAppendix C: Global Scenarios Appendix D: Science and TechnologyAppendix E: Global Energy Collective IntelligenceAppendix F: Government Future Strategy UnitsAppendix G: Education and Learning 2030Appendix H: Global EthicsAppendix I: Global Goals for the Year 2050Appendix J: World Leaders on Global ChallengesAppendix K: Environmental Security StudiesAppendix L: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development Appendix M: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in DecisionmakingAppendix N: Real Time Delphi ProcessAppendix O: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario SetsAppendix P: Other Annotated Bibliographies: Ethics Related Organizations Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research Women/Gender OrganizationsAppendix R: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future and the Millennium Project Appendix S: Publications of the Millennium Project Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Figures
Figure 1. SOFI 2007 with alternative projections by trend impact analysisFigure 2. Global surface temperature anomalies (0C)Figure 3. Global trends of freedomFigure 4. Regional internet population growthFigure 5. Share of people living on less than $1 a day (%)Figure 6. Physicians density (per 10 000 population)Figure 7. Growth of international organizations (NGOs and IGOs)Figure 8. Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2007Figure 9. Women in national parliaments (percentage)Figure 10. Global challenges and SOFI processFigure 11. SOFI 2007 with trend impact analysisFigure 12. Unemployment with trend impact analysisFigure 13. Correlation between poverty, unemployment, and population growth (income less than $1 per day) (low- and mid-income countriesFigure 14. SOFI using IFs data in the Millennium Project templateFigure 15. SOFI comparison with IFs data and Millennium Project dataFigure 16. South Korea SOFI using IFs data and Millennium Project dataFigure 17. SOFI of the Republic of South KoreaFigure 18. Screen-shots of the SOFI presentationFigure 19. Screen-shot of a Real-Time Delphi questionnaireFigure 20. Demographics of RTD participants since 2006Figure 21. Possible representation of the global energy elementsFigure 22. Example of a unit of information, with column of choices about the informationFigure 23. Argument-structured information overview of an issueFigure 24. Recursive linked interfaceFigure 25. Politician and staff member, GENIS flow diagramFigure 26. Energy dash board example for a question during a legislative hearingFigure 27. Failed States Index 2008Figure 28. Expenditures and estimated costs of various programsFigure 29. Ratifications of 12 multilateral environmental agreements, by UNEP GEO regionsFigure 30. Number of parties to multilateral environmental agreements, 1975–2008Figure 31. Participants in the 2007–08 programFigure 32. Participants since 1996
Boxes
Box 1. Where is humanity winning and losingBox 2. SOFI variablesBox 3. SOFI 2007–08 studyBox 4. Systemic SOFI and 2008 SOFIBox 5. SOFI variables for the Republic of South KoreaBox 6. Some accords and regulations related to environmental security recently adopted, strengthened, in negotiation, or proposed.
Paperback with CD-ROM
... enclosed CD contains about 6,300 pages of research behind this print edition, as well as the Millennium Project’s 12 years of study and analysis.
Executive Summary: Arabic, English, Russian, Spanish
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping
Order
(See the article in The Independent: "We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed" )
Table of Contents
List of Figures and Boxes
What is New in This Year’s Report
... enclosed CD contains about 6,300 pages of research behind this print edition, as well as the Millennium Project’s 12 years of study and analysis.
Executive Summary: Arabic, English, Russian, Spanish
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping
Order
(See the article in The Independent: "We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed" )
Table of Contents
List of Figures and Boxes
What is New in This Year’s Report
ESTADO DEL FUTURO 2007
“El Estado del Futuro es una publicación informativa que ofrece una visión invaluable sobre el futuro para las Naciones Unidas, sus Estados Miembros y para la sociedad civil.”
Ban Ki-moon, Secretario-General de las Naciones Unidas
“Los 15 Desafíos Globales del Estado del Futuro deben ser leídos por todos los líderes para mejorar sus propias estrategias en un mundo globalizado.”
Eduardo Frei, ex Presidente de Chile y Presidente del Senado de Chile
El Millennium Project es una red global que integra a más de dos mil científicos, políticos, empresarios, artistas, intelectuales, académicos, investigadores de todo el mundo, creada en 1996 por el American Council for The United Nations University, que hoy depende de la World Federation of United Nations Associations.
Es un grupo participativo de pensamiento global, constituido en respuesta a la naturaleza cada vez más transnacional, trans-institucional, y trans-disciplinaria de los enormes desafíos que presenta el futuro del mundo.
El MP estableció “quince desafíos globales para la humanidad”, los que son evaluados anualmente en una perspectiva a diez, veinte, treinta y más años, lo que se recoge en el informe anual “State of the Future”.
Asimismo, ha creado el Índice del Estado del Futuro, que mide 29 variables del futuro global en general, en una perspectiva a 10 años. Se construye sobre la base de las variables relevantes y los pronósticos relacionados con las oportunidades y los desafíos globales, los que han surgido de este proceso participativo global sobre el futuro más grande de la historia.
Desarrollo sustentable, agua, demografía, democracia, educación, globalización, tecnologías de la información, pobreza, nuevas patologías, empleo, conflictos étnicos, género, crimen organizado, energía, ciencia y tecnología, y ética de las decisiones globales, son la base de una reflexión destinada a políticos, educadores y comunicadores sociales sobre la necesidad de introducir escenarios de futuro para la toma de decisiones.
Es lo que se denomina “gestión del futuro”, materia de gobierno en varios países, como Francia, Estados Unidos, Finlandia. Por ejemplo. en Finlandia el parlamento tiene de manera permanente un Comité del Futuro y 17 universidades han formado la Academia del Futuro. Universidades de Europa, Estados Unidos, Japón, Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela, Brasil han formado centros de prospectiva.
Los Nodos del Millennium Project son grupos de personas y organizaciones existentes en cada país, que interconectan las perspectivas locales y globales. Por medio de su investigación, publicaciones, conferencias y Nodos, el Millennium Project ayuda a nutrir un espíritu de colaboración internacional de libre indagación y reciprocidad para aumentar la inteligencia colectiva, al mismo tiempo mejorando la viabilidad social, técnica, y medio ambiental para el desarrollo humano. Es por medio de sus contribuciones que surge la imagen del mundo que tiene este Informe.
El informe Estado del Futuro 2007 representa el primer año de la segunda década de actividades de este grupo de pensamiento, y considera cuestiones que se extienden desde la esperanza de vida y mortalidad infantil, a la esclavitud sexual, la economía global, la energía y la seguridad ambiental, y los cambios inminentes en la educación y el aprendizaje.
Contiene, además, un estudio específico sobre la Educación al año 2030, encargado por el gobierno de Corea del Sur.
El tema del futuro aparentemente es motivo de creciente preocupación. Lo que el Millennium Project y en general los futuristas plantean es que el futuro existe y que se puede gestionar, de manera que los escenarios posibles no lleguen necesariamente a ser como podrían ser. Pero para ello es preciso disponer, a todo nivel, en gobierno, empresas, municipios, universidades, de equipos de prospectiva, capaces de aplicar metodologías apropiadas para crear esos escenarios y generar respuestas posibles.
Hay cuestiones esenciales del desarrollo científico-tecnológico esperado para los siguientes cuarenta años, que exigen hoy definiciones éticas y políticas. Por ejemplo, la posibilidad de una pronta mutación desde nuestra actual condición humana (“bio-org”), hacia una nueva especie humana (“Cyb-org”) “rediseñada” tecnológicamente en lo físico, y potenciada cerebralmente mediante la implantación de chips con capacidad de procesamiento cinco mil veces mayor que los actuales, conectados a Internet, capaces de obtener una información en tiempo real. La creación de una generación de vida artificial inteligente –robots y Symborgs- que superen en capacidad de procesamiento de información al cerebro humano, e incluso con “pensamiento” propio. El advenimiento de mundos virtuales en Internet entrelazados con el real, con “ciudadanos virtuales” y con organismos virtuales cuyo hábitat es la web. La intervención genética en embriones cuando la lectura del código indique predisposición a ciertas enfermedades o a conductas violentas.
Todo lo señalado existe actualmente. El desarrollo al 2020 de la “Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno tecnología” será capaz de modificar a los seres humanos y al medioambiente. Según el “transhumanismo”, la especie humana no es el fin sino el comienzo de la evolución. La transferencia de toda la información y capacidades neuronales desde un cerebro a un PC mediante un sofisticado “pendrive” puede ser el anticipo de la inmortalidad, o sea, seguir viviendo eternamente en una máquina.
Estas cuestiones modificarán dramáticamente los sistemas de producción, la educación, las prestaciones sociales y la forma de organización política de la humanidad. Las preguntas que surgen son inquietantes: ¿Tenemos el derecho de cambiar genéticamente para transformarnos en nuevas especies? ¿Resulta ético crear elites mejoradas con inteligencia artificial e ingeniería genética? ¿Los nuevos organismos de inteligencia artificial pero “pensantes” tienen derechos? ¿Seguirá existiendo la escuela o la universidad como un lugar físico? ¿Habrá profesores? ¿Qué haremos con nuestro tiempo cuando vivamos 150 años?
Como no existe una gobernabilidad global de estos temas, pero que repercutirán globalmente, en Chile y América latina deberíamos ocuparnos de ellos aunque parezcan lejanos a nuestra cotidianidad.
Es un grupo participativo de pensamiento global, constituido en respuesta a la naturaleza cada vez más transnacional, trans-institucional, y trans-disciplinaria de los enormes desafíos que presenta el futuro del mundo.
El MP estableció “quince desafíos globales para la humanidad”, los que son evaluados anualmente en una perspectiva a diez, veinte, treinta y más años, lo que se recoge en el informe anual “State of the Future”.
Asimismo, ha creado el Índice del Estado del Futuro, que mide 29 variables del futuro global en general, en una perspectiva a 10 años. Se construye sobre la base de las variables relevantes y los pronósticos relacionados con las oportunidades y los desafíos globales, los que han surgido de este proceso participativo global sobre el futuro más grande de la historia.
Desarrollo sustentable, agua, demografía, democracia, educación, globalización, tecnologías de la información, pobreza, nuevas patologías, empleo, conflictos étnicos, género, crimen organizado, energía, ciencia y tecnología, y ética de las decisiones globales, son la base de una reflexión destinada a políticos, educadores y comunicadores sociales sobre la necesidad de introducir escenarios de futuro para la toma de decisiones.
Es lo que se denomina “gestión del futuro”, materia de gobierno en varios países, como Francia, Estados Unidos, Finlandia. Por ejemplo. en Finlandia el parlamento tiene de manera permanente un Comité del Futuro y 17 universidades han formado la Academia del Futuro. Universidades de Europa, Estados Unidos, Japón, Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela, Brasil han formado centros de prospectiva.
Los Nodos del Millennium Project son grupos de personas y organizaciones existentes en cada país, que interconectan las perspectivas locales y globales. Por medio de su investigación, publicaciones, conferencias y Nodos, el Millennium Project ayuda a nutrir un espíritu de colaboración internacional de libre indagación y reciprocidad para aumentar la inteligencia colectiva, al mismo tiempo mejorando la viabilidad social, técnica, y medio ambiental para el desarrollo humano. Es por medio de sus contribuciones que surge la imagen del mundo que tiene este Informe.
El informe Estado del Futuro 2007 representa el primer año de la segunda década de actividades de este grupo de pensamiento, y considera cuestiones que se extienden desde la esperanza de vida y mortalidad infantil, a la esclavitud sexual, la economía global, la energía y la seguridad ambiental, y los cambios inminentes en la educación y el aprendizaje.
Contiene, además, un estudio específico sobre la Educación al año 2030, encargado por el gobierno de Corea del Sur.
El tema del futuro aparentemente es motivo de creciente preocupación. Lo que el Millennium Project y en general los futuristas plantean es que el futuro existe y que se puede gestionar, de manera que los escenarios posibles no lleguen necesariamente a ser como podrían ser. Pero para ello es preciso disponer, a todo nivel, en gobierno, empresas, municipios, universidades, de equipos de prospectiva, capaces de aplicar metodologías apropiadas para crear esos escenarios y generar respuestas posibles.
Hay cuestiones esenciales del desarrollo científico-tecnológico esperado para los siguientes cuarenta años, que exigen hoy definiciones éticas y políticas. Por ejemplo, la posibilidad de una pronta mutación desde nuestra actual condición humana (“bio-org”), hacia una nueva especie humana (“Cyb-org”) “rediseñada” tecnológicamente en lo físico, y potenciada cerebralmente mediante la implantación de chips con capacidad de procesamiento cinco mil veces mayor que los actuales, conectados a Internet, capaces de obtener una información en tiempo real. La creación de una generación de vida artificial inteligente –robots y Symborgs- que superen en capacidad de procesamiento de información al cerebro humano, e incluso con “pensamiento” propio. El advenimiento de mundos virtuales en Internet entrelazados con el real, con “ciudadanos virtuales” y con organismos virtuales cuyo hábitat es la web. La intervención genética en embriones cuando la lectura del código indique predisposición a ciertas enfermedades o a conductas violentas.
Todo lo señalado existe actualmente. El desarrollo al 2020 de la “Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno tecnología” será capaz de modificar a los seres humanos y al medioambiente. Según el “transhumanismo”, la especie humana no es el fin sino el comienzo de la evolución. La transferencia de toda la información y capacidades neuronales desde un cerebro a un PC mediante un sofisticado “pendrive” puede ser el anticipo de la inmortalidad, o sea, seguir viviendo eternamente en una máquina.
Estas cuestiones modificarán dramáticamente los sistemas de producción, la educación, las prestaciones sociales y la forma de organización política de la humanidad. Las preguntas que surgen son inquietantes: ¿Tenemos el derecho de cambiar genéticamente para transformarnos en nuevas especies? ¿Resulta ético crear elites mejoradas con inteligencia artificial e ingeniería genética? ¿Los nuevos organismos de inteligencia artificial pero “pensantes” tienen derechos? ¿Seguirá existiendo la escuela o la universidad como un lugar físico? ¿Habrá profesores? ¿Qué haremos con nuestro tiempo cuando vivamos 150 años?
Como no existe una gobernabilidad global de estos temas, pero que repercutirán globalmente, en Chile y América latina deberíamos ocuparnos de ellos aunque parezcan lejanos a nuestra cotidianidad.
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