2008 State of the Future
by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu
www millennium-project.org
www millennium-project.org
While it is not possible to predict the future, the 2008 State of the Future report enables us to think analytically about crucial global challenges, such as environmental security.
Hans Blix, President, WFUNA, and Former Director-General, IAEA
The 2008 State of the Future continues its excellent annual tradition of providing a comprehensive, insightful, and highly readable review of issues and options facing global decisionmakers.
The 2008 State of the Future continues its excellent annual tradition of providing a comprehensive, insightful, and highly readable review of issues and options facing global decisionmakers.
Mohan Munasinghe, Vice Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, co-winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
The Millennium Project and its State of the Future report represent best practice on how collective intelligence across borders and sectors can be focused on critical global challenges and opportunities. The enhanced participation of developing nations (especially in Africa) in such futures outlook is essential to our shared future.
Olive Shisana, CEO, Human Sciences Research Council, South Africa
Success for policymakers depends upon having some ability to anticipate the consequences of their actions. The insights that the State of the Future provides hold great appeal in this regard.
Ali M. Abbasov, Minister of Communications and Information Technologies of the Republic of Azerbaijan
An important commitment of any government is to look at the future with responsibility. The 2008 State of the Future and the Millennium Project research and foresight work are necessary in order to aim at ambitious social goals and to commit ourselves to achieve them.
Enrique Peña Nieto, Constitutional Governor of the State of Mexico
The State of the Future challenges all of us working on the global convergence of ICT to improve knowledge-based governance worldwide.
Goran Radman, Chairman, Microsoft Corporation––South East Europe
The 15 Global Challenges updated annually continue to be the best introduction by far to the key issues of the early 21st century.
Michael Marien, editor, Future Survey
The State of the Future provides unique political, economic, and social insights into the progress the world is making through the SOFI (State of the Future Index) and increasingly clear perspectives into the 15 Global Challenges humanity must learn how to mitigate and manage as we continue to evolve into our mutual future.
John J. Gottsman, Chair, World Future Society
The 2008 State of the Future is a “must read” if you want to stay in the hub of the wheel of world future issues.
Kazuo Mizuta, Professor, Kyoto Sangyo, University, Japan
Nine of the eleven annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.
This “Report Card on the Future” distills the collective intelligence of over 2,500 leading scientists, futurists, scholars, and policy advisors who work for governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, and international organizations. The 2008 State of the Future comes in two parts: a 100-page print executive summary and an attached CD containing about 6,000 pages of research behind the print edition and the Millennium Project’s 12 years of cumulative research and methods. Some unique features not available in other global assessments include:
15 Global Challenges – Prospects, Strategies, Insights
State of the Future Index for the world and nations
Government Future Strategy Units and some potentials for international strategic coordination
Global Energy Collective Intelligence – system design options
Environmental Security – overview
Real-Time Delphi technique
700 Annotated Scenario Sets
and much more futures intelligence on technology, environment, governance, and the human condition
It is produced by the Millennium Project, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.
Paperback with CD-ROM. 100-page print and over 6,000 pages CD-ROM ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping. Discount 40% for orders over 10 copies. (Payment by major credit cards or US dollars check or money order)
Table of ContentsThe 2008 State of the Future is composed of two parts: print and CD. The print book contains the executive summary of each of the studies conducted in 2007–08. The enclosed CD of about 6,300 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium Project since 1996 and details of the studies included in the print section.
Table of Contents – Print Section
Table of Contents – CD
List of Figures and Boxes
Table of Contents – Print Section
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary - 1
1. Global Challenges - 11
2. State of the Future Index - 43
3. Real-Time Delphi Technique - 55
4. Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination - 59
5. Global Energy Collective Intelligence - 71
6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues - 83
Appendix Millennium Project Participants Demographics
Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Table of Contents – CD-ROM Section
Executive Summary (10 pages)
1. Global Challenges (1,100 pages)
2. State of the Future Index Section2.1 Global SOFI (286 pages)2.2 National SOFIs (89 pages)2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)
3. Global Scenarios 3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)
4. Governance-related Studies4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination 4.2 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)4.3 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
5. Science and Technology5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)
6. Global Energy Collective Intelligence
7. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)
8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development 8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)
9. Environmental Security 9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives (31 pages)9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)
10. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)
11. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)
Appendices Appendix A: Millennium Project ParticipantsAppendix B: State of the Future Index SectionAppendix C: Global Scenarios Appendix D: Science and TechnologyAppendix E: Global Energy Collective IntelligenceAppendix F: Government Future Strategy UnitsAppendix G: Education and Learning 2030Appendix H: Global EthicsAppendix I: Global Goals for the Year 2050Appendix J: World Leaders on Global ChallengesAppendix K: Environmental Security StudiesAppendix L: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development Appendix M: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in DecisionmakingAppendix N: Real Time Delphi ProcessAppendix O: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario SetsAppendix P: Other Annotated Bibliographies: Ethics Related Organizations Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research Women/Gender OrganizationsAppendix R: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future and the Millennium Project Appendix S: Publications of the Millennium Project Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Figures
Figure 1. SOFI 2007 with alternative projections by trend impact analysisFigure 2. Global surface temperature anomalies (0C)Figure 3. Global trends of freedomFigure 4. Regional internet population growthFigure 5. Share of people living on less than $1 a day (%)Figure 6. Physicians density (per 10 000 population)Figure 7. Growth of international organizations (NGOs and IGOs)Figure 8. Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2007Figure 9. Women in national parliaments (percentage)Figure 10. Global challenges and SOFI processFigure 11. SOFI 2007 with trend impact analysisFigure 12. Unemployment with trend impact analysisFigure 13. Correlation between poverty, unemployment, and population growth (income less than $1 per day) (low- and mid-income countriesFigure 14. SOFI using IFs data in the Millennium Project templateFigure 15. SOFI comparison with IFs data and Millennium Project dataFigure 16. South Korea SOFI using IFs data and Millennium Project dataFigure 17. SOFI of the Republic of South KoreaFigure 18. Screen-shots of the SOFI presentationFigure 19. Screen-shot of a Real-Time Delphi questionnaireFigure 20. Demographics of RTD participants since 2006Figure 21. Possible representation of the global energy elementsFigure 22. Example of a unit of information, with column of choices about the informationFigure 23. Argument-structured information overview of an issueFigure 24. Recursive linked interfaceFigure 25. Politician and staff member, GENIS flow diagramFigure 26. Energy dash board example for a question during a legislative hearingFigure 27. Failed States Index 2008Figure 28. Expenditures and estimated costs of various programsFigure 29. Ratifications of 12 multilateral environmental agreements, by UNEP GEO regionsFigure 30. Number of parties to multilateral environmental agreements, 1975–2008Figure 31. Participants in the 2007–08 programFigure 32. Participants since 1996
Boxes
Box 1. Where is humanity winning and losingBox 2. SOFI variablesBox 3. SOFI 2007–08 studyBox 4. Systemic SOFI and 2008 SOFIBox 5. SOFI variables for the Republic of South KoreaBox 6. Some accords and regulations related to environmental security recently adopted, strengthened, in negotiation, or proposed
2008 State of the Future by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu
TO BE PUBLISHED AUGUST 2008
all www millennium-project.org
While it is not possible to predict the future, the 2008 State of the Future report enables us to think analytically about crucial global challenges, such as environmental security. Hans Blix, President, WFUNA, and Former Director-General, IAEA
Paperback with CD-ROM
... enclosed CD contains about 6,300 pages of research behind this print edition, as well as the Millennium Project’s 12 years of study and analysis.
Executive Summary: Arabic, English, Russian, Spanish
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping
Order
(See the article in The Independent: "We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed" )
Table of Contents
List of Figures and Boxes
What is New in This Year’s Report
The 2008 State of the Future continues its excellent annual tradition of providing a comprehensive, insightful, and highly readable review of issues and options facing global decisionmakers. Mohan Munasinghe, Vice Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, co-winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
The Millennium Project and its State of the Future report represent best practice on how collective intelligence across borders and sectors can be focused on critical global challenges and opportunities. The enhanced participation of developing nations (especially in Africa) in such futures outlook is essential to our shared future. Olive Shisana, CEO, Human Sciences Research Council, South Africa
Success for policymakers depends upon having some ability to anticipate the consequences of their actions. The insights that the State of the Future provides hold great appeal in this regard. Ali M. Abbasov, Minister of Communications and Information Technologies of the Republic of Azerbaijan
An important commitment of any government is to look at the future with responsibility. The 2008 State of the Future and the Millennium Project research and foresight work are necessary in order to aim at ambitious social goals and to commit ourselves to achieve them. Enrique Peña Nieto, Constitutional Governor of the State of Mexico
The State of the Future challenges all of us working on the global convergence of ICT to improve knowledge-based governance worldwide. Goran Radman, Chairman, Microsoft Corporation––South East Europe
The 15 Global Challenges updated annually continue to be the best introduction by far to the key issues of the early 21st century. Michael Marien, editor, Future Survey
The State of the Future provides unique political, economic, and social insights into the progress the world is making through the SOFI (State of the Future Index) and increasingly clear perspectives into the 15 Global Challenges humanity must learn how to mitigate and manage as we continue to evolve into our mutual future. John J. Gottsman, Chair, World Future Society
The 2008 State of the Future is a “must read” if you want to stay in the hub of the wheel of world future issues. Kazuo Mizuta, Professor, Kyoto Sangyo, University, Japan
Nine of the eleven annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.
This “Report Card on the Future” distills the collective intelligence of over 2,500 leading scientists, futurists, scholars, and policy advisors who work for governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, and international organizations. The 2008 State of the Future comes in two parts: a 100-page print executive summary and an attached CD containing about 6,000 pages of research behind the print edition and the Millennium Project’s 12 years of cumulative research and methods. Some unique features not available in other global assessments include:
15 Global Challenges – Prospects, Strategies, Insights
State of the Future Index for the world and nations
Government Future Strategy Units and some potentials for international strategic coordination
Global Energy Collective Intelligence – system design options
Environmental Security – overview
Real-Time Delphi technique
700 Annotated Scenario Sets
and much more futures intelligence on technology, environment, governance, and the human condition
It is produced by the Millennium Project, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.
Paperback with CD-ROM. 100-page print and over 6,000 pages CD-ROM ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping. Discount 40% for orders over 10 copies. (Payment by major credit cards or US dollars check or money order)
Table of ContentsThe 2008 State of the Future is composed of two parts: print and CD. The print book contains the executive summary of each of the studies conducted in 2007–08. The enclosed CD of about 6,300 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium Project since 1996 and details of the studies included in the print section.
Table of Contents – Print Section
Table of Contents – CD
List of Figures and Boxes
Table of Contents – Print Section
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary - 1
1. Global Challenges - 11
2. State of the Future Index - 43
3. Real-Time Delphi Technique - 55
4. Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination - 59
5. Global Energy Collective Intelligence - 71
6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues - 83
Appendix Millennium Project Participants Demographics
Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Table of Contents – CD-ROM Section
Executive Summary (10 pages)
1. Global Challenges (1,100 pages)
2. State of the Future Index Section2.1 Global SOFI (286 pages)2.2 National SOFIs (89 pages)2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)
3. Global Scenarios 3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)
4. Governance-related Studies4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination 4.2 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)4.3 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
5. Science and Technology5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)
6. Global Energy Collective Intelligence
7. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)
8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development 8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)
9. Environmental Security 9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives (31 pages)9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)
10. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)
11. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)
Appendices Appendix A: Millennium Project ParticipantsAppendix B: State of the Future Index SectionAppendix C: Global Scenarios Appendix D: Science and TechnologyAppendix E: Global Energy Collective IntelligenceAppendix F: Government Future Strategy UnitsAppendix G: Education and Learning 2030Appendix H: Global EthicsAppendix I: Global Goals for the Year 2050Appendix J: World Leaders on Global ChallengesAppendix K: Environmental Security StudiesAppendix L: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development Appendix M: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in DecisionmakingAppendix N: Real Time Delphi ProcessAppendix O: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario SetsAppendix P: Other Annotated Bibliographies: Ethics Related Organizations Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research Women/Gender OrganizationsAppendix R: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future and the Millennium Project Appendix S: Publications of the Millennium Project Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Figures
Figure 1. SOFI 2007 with alternative projections by trend impact analysisFigure 2. Global surface temperature anomalies (0C)Figure 3. Global trends of freedomFigure 4. Regional internet population growthFigure 5. Share of people living on less than $1 a day (%)Figure 6. Physicians density (per 10 000 population)Figure 7. Growth of international organizations (NGOs and IGOs)Figure 8. Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2007Figure 9. Women in national parliaments (percentage)Figure 10. Global challenges and SOFI processFigure 11. SOFI 2007 with trend impact analysisFigure 12. Unemployment with trend impact analysisFigure 13. Correlation between poverty, unemployment, and population growth (income less than $1 per day) (low- and mid-income countriesFigure 14. SOFI using IFs data in the Millennium Project templateFigure 15. SOFI comparison with IFs data and Millennium Project dataFigure 16. South Korea SOFI using IFs data and Millennium Project dataFigure 17. SOFI of the Republic of South KoreaFigure 18. Screen-shots of the SOFI presentationFigure 19. Screen-shot of a Real-Time Delphi questionnaireFigure 20. Demographics of RTD participants since 2006Figure 21. Possible representation of the global energy elementsFigure 22. Example of a unit of information, with column of choices about the informationFigure 23. Argument-structured information overview of an issueFigure 24. Recursive linked interfaceFigure 25. Politician and staff member, GENIS flow diagramFigure 26. Energy dash board example for a question during a legislative hearingFigure 27. Failed States Index 2008Figure 28. Expenditures and estimated costs of various programsFigure 29. Ratifications of 12 multilateral environmental agreements, by UNEP GEO regionsFigure 30. Number of parties to multilateral environmental agreements, 1975–2008Figure 31. Participants in the 2007–08 programFigure 32. Participants since 1996
Boxes
Box 1. Where is humanity winning and losingBox 2. SOFI variablesBox 3. SOFI 2007–08 studyBox 4. Systemic SOFI and 2008 SOFIBox 5. SOFI variables for the Republic of South KoreaBox 6. Some accords and regulations related to environmental security recently adopted, strengthened, in negotiation, or proposed.
Paperback with CD-ROM
... enclosed CD contains about 6,300 pages of research behind this print edition, as well as the Millennium Project’s 12 years of study and analysis.
Executive Summary: Arabic, English, Russian, Spanish
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping
Order
(See the article in The Independent: "We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed" )
Table of Contents
List of Figures and Boxes
What is New in This Year’s Report
... enclosed CD contains about 6,300 pages of research behind this print edition, as well as the Millennium Project’s 12 years of study and analysis.
Executive Summary: Arabic, English, Russian, Spanish
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping
Order
(See the article in The Independent: "We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed" )
Table of Contents
List of Figures and Boxes
What is New in This Year’s Report
